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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-01-06T12:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-01-06T12:00Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-01-10T23:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2016 Jan 07 0924 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A halo CME occurred yesterday at 14:12 (LASCO-C2). This event is backsided and not expected to arrive to the Earth. A previous slow CME (12:00 UT, 250 km/s) was in the field of view of LASCO-C2 when the second one started, CACTus merged these two events and emitted an alert as a full halo CME.
The second CME had an angular width of 100 degrees, originated from a filament eruption close to the eastern limb and was mostly directed to the south-east, but a glancing blow at the Earth cannot be discarded late on January 10. Due to the slow speed of this CME not more than active conditions should be expected.
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Lead Time: 86.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-01-07T09:25Z
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